Monthly Archives: July 2008

Buy an Index Fund

2
Filed under Books, Investing, Personal Finance

If you want to invest your money, you should consider to put your hard working money into . That is one of the advice from Mr Warren Buffet. Unless you have the ability to do your own analysis. Thus ask your mutual fund / unit trust agent, “Do you sell any index fund Mr Salesperson?”

But if you decide not to index, John C Bogle on Common Sense of Mutual Funds, stated …

But if the beginning of simplicity is the index fund, it need not be the end. History suggests that, in the long run, only one of every five actively managed funds is apt to outpace the market index (after taxes, only one of seven). And some simple commonsense principles should help you to select them and to earn a generous portion of the market’s return - again, all too likely, less than 100 percent. If there are long odds against outpacing the market, going about the task of fund selection intelligently can at least help to guard against a significant failure. Even master investor Warren Buffett, a strong proponent of the index approach, concedes that there may be other ways to construct an investment portfolio:

“Should you choose… to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note the word ’selected’: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”

The Prussian General Karl von Clausewitz once said, “The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.” And, though I believe that an index strategy is a good strategy, you may want to seek a better plan, if not a perfect plan, no matter how great the challenge, no matter how overpowering the odds against implementing it with extraordinary success. So, much as I would urge you to commit your investments to an all-index-fund approach - or at least to follow an approach using index funds as the core of your portfolio - I’m going to offer you another simple approach: eight basic rules that should help you to capitalize on the advantages that have accounted for the historical ability of an index to provide superior returns. These eight rules are not complex. But they should help you to make intelligent fund selections for your investment program.

Oil Price Soar

0
Filed under Economy & Finance

From Yahoo Finance:

Oil rises above $144 on US supply drop
Oil soared to a record above $144 a barrel Thursday in Asia, fueled by concerns over a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. stockpiles and the threat of conflict with Iran.

Now, everybody is worrying. But in some place, somewhere, a group of people is really happy with this situation. Er.. maybe ;)

From Mr S. Dali of Malaysia-Finance:

Its now an official game of blame. Who is responsible for the current price of oil at US140 per barrel.

Big Oil Companies (when doing their PR in their home countries): They will blame speculators for driving up oil prices. As they are spreading propaganda to the general public, they have to divert attention from themselves. The big oil companies fear that their own government will whack them with big windfall tax on their earnings.

Big Oil Companies (at major international conferences): When they are away from their home ground, they will blame the situation on inadequate supply. They will blame it on countries with supposed oil reserves. The big oil companies want the international spotlight on these countries so that these countries will be pressured to open up their locations to allow more joint ventures with big oil companies.

OPEC: They do not want to be pressured to pump more oil. Their blame game is back on the speculators. They also rather focus the increase in demand side, and would state that their supply growth is steady. Just because demand is rising faster than OPEC’s supply, that is not OPEC’s fault. They would try to deflect criticism on the demand side, including China and other emerging markets.

Countries Cutting Oil Subsidy: They would have to blame it on speculators or something external so that the decision would seem to be forced upon them, when it was bad planning to start with. Many of these countries should have been weaned off subsidies long before the proverbial stuff hit the fan.

Speculators: Well, they would want to be regarded as investors now, now that they are taking along their profits on such a good thing. Careers and fortunes have been made by just going long on oil for the past 3 years. They claim that since they have been going long, taking profit, and going long some more, they should be classified as investors - even though they now account for the majority of futures trade in oil, and have no bloody intention to consume.

Oil & Gas Companies: They provide the equipment and physical asets to allow for more drilling, they don’t care who is to be blamed for the oil price surge. The higher the price, the greater the number of jobs as more difficult wells become viable and more complex technologies are employed.

Political Pundits: Mostly arguing that oil had been kept artificially low by US interests for far too long, and now thanks to the debilitating economic conditions in the US (hence USD) and a more liberal global political landscape, oil is finding its true mean.

Traditional Economists: Its a simple demand and supply equation. Not so much that supply is unable to match demand, but rather that the low hanging fruits, the easy oil has all been harvested and identified. The higher price of oil basically means the market is forcing players to spend more, invest more to find the more difficult oil.

Libya, Cuba, North Korea: Its another American conspiracy.

Close
E-mail It